Economists run the numbers on AI, see economic boost
🔮 Economist see a future where AI lifts economic growth by boosting productivity.
Economists are running the numbers on AI, expecting positive economic output as a result of artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT. Economist see a future where AI lifts economic growth by boosting productivity.
Estimates from Goldman Sachs show that AI could boost annual U.S. productivity growth by 1.5 percent over the next decade. This is a generous assumption.
The Wall Street Journal notes that Goldman senior economist Joseph Briggs believes predicting economic growth from AI is challenging. “The lift AI provides to productivity growth could be as small as 0.3 percentage point or as high as 2.9 points because of uncertainties around companies’ adoption timeline and AI’s ultimate capabilities,” writes the Journal.
Still, “in all of the scenarios that we considered, the productivity boosts were large enough given the trend pace in productivity growth, that it would be an economically significant outcome,” Briggs said.
Productivity gains are key to long-term economic growth because it means the same number of workers can produce more goods and services, ultimately raising living standards.